In this episode I look into the cornerstone of the typical American dream, home ownership.
To help me understand the ins and outs of this significant milestone in anyone’s life,
I have invited back to the show Patrick Town, the owner of Union Home Plus, a Seattle based company that for nearly 20 years has been providing union members the safest, most cost-effective way to buy, sell or refinance their home. Also joining our conversation is Tim Tilbury owner of Velocity Real Estate Inc.
We’ll start today’s conversation by delving into why, now more than ever, it’s the right time to get into your first home.
Next, we’ll compare the dollars and cents value of renting an apartment vs. purchasing a house and why it is more of an adjustment to your mindset than it is to your wallet.
Later we’ll discuss some key points that need to be considered in order to lay the foundation for a successful purchase.
And we’ll end our conversation by giving you the information you need to connect with the right lender and realtor to make your dream come true.
Be sure to check out the show notes at the end of the episode to find out more about Union Home Plus and Velocity Real Estate Inc.
The Show Notes
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My name is Patrick town. I'm the director of union HomePlus and I've got grit. Hi, I'mTim Tilbury:
Tim Tilbury with Union HomePlus and I've got Britt.Joe Cadwell:
Grit Northwest. I'm Joe Cadwell, writer, producer and host of the show. And on today's episode, I look into the cornerstone of the typical American dream of homeownership. To help you understand the ins and outs of a significant milestone in anyone's life, I've invited back to the show Patrick Towne, the owner of union Home Plus, a Seattle based company that for nearly 20 years has been providing union members the safest, most cost effective way to buy, sell, or refinance their home. Also joining our conversation is Tim Tilbury owner of velocity real estate Inc. will start today's conversation by delving into why now more than ever, it's the right time to get into your first home. Next, we'll compare the dollars and cents value of renting an apartment versus purchasing a house and why it's more of an adjustment to your mindset than it is to your wallet. Later, we'll discuss some key points that need to be considered in order to lay the foundation for a successful purchase. And we'll end our conversation by giving you the information you need to connect with the right lender and realtor to make your dream come true. Be sure to check out the show notes at the end of the episode to find out more about union Home Plus and philosophy real estate. And now on to the show. Gentlemen, welcome to Grit Northwest.Patrick Town:
Thanks for having us, Joe. Happy to be here.Tim Tilbury:
Joe, this is awesome. I'm excited to be on with you.Joe Cadwell:
Yeah, thank you guys so much for taking your time to be on the show. Patrick, you've been on the show before one of my more popular episodes helping our carpenters and our apprentices figure out what to do with their money. You had Johnny Flavin on with you last time from Aspire capital. And today we have Tim Tilbury and Tim, what do you do with the the union Home Plus crew?Tim Tilbury:
I don't Well, I am involved with the real estate portion of union Home Plus program. I am a licensed real estate broker and owner of velocity real estate Inc. Under the Keller Williams umbrella here in downtown and in West Seattle.Joe Cadwell:
Okay, downtown Seattle, West Seattle and Patrick, you're also up in Seattle, aren't you?Patrick Town:
We are our offices are located right? So lucky again. And we are the purveyors of the financial side of things, which is why our focus on financial wellness really is a precursor to having conversations about buying or selling or financing a home.Joe Cadwell:
Okay, last time I had you on the show, again, we were talking about just I've got a slush fund of money now, you know, I'm a union Carpenter, and the money starting to come in. We talked about strategy on what to do with the that surplus funds, the the bucket strategy, the short term, the mid term and the long term strategies. And really some great information was was shared there. But now, maybe we can direct our conversation as to almost your special you guys's specialty about actually putting some of our members into homes, where should we start a conversation?Patrick Town:
Well, I think one of the places that I might suggest we start is trying to kind of understand where we are, you know, we were having a conversation earlier this morning, about you know, housing affordability, and how the media has kind of grabbed hold of that and a little bit this illusionary with all the hype, but it's caused a bit of fear and a lot of misunderstanding with folks. We get lots and lots of calls every day regarding that. And so, you know, one of the shifts that we're seeing right now is and as we spoke about this morning, it's not so much about if you can afford a home, in this market, it's about your willingness to afford a home, you know, if you still married to that $1,200 truck payment you have, then I guess that might come in handy, but I can't blame I live in it. But at some point you need to prioritize homeownership. And you see that right now with the escalating rents rents are actually increasing higher per annum right now than many home areas in value. That's an interesting dynamic for someone to deal with. Because their thought was always in the past. Well, they can't afford to buy a house I'll just keep renting until I can afford without jump in. You're going the wrong direction, right? No, there isn't. I know everyone will always tell you now it'd be the best time to buy rates are low HOAs are appreciating, but you have the most Most opportunistic time and set the time in history to buy a home, let me give you just a very brief mathematical example, that I think everyone can understand. If you have a house payment of $1,000 a month, and it goes up 10%, so $1,100 a month, well, if you're making $5,000, a mother as a as a carpenter, and your wages are going up five to 7%, you're still two and a half to three and a half times the increase in what the market is doing to your house payment. So the affordability is there, it comes back to the prioritization if you want to afford that home. And it doesn't really matter about the age, but I get so many calls from brand new apprentices that are just coming into the trays. These are young gals and guys, and they just haven't had an opportunity long enough to learn how to properly budget, they took the highest hanging fruit, they acquire their apartment, or they acquire their their vehicle. But now they're coming into a lifestyle, you've got good, strong, consistent, income is increasing. And they're loving life like they're spending everything they make. And so in today's market, if someone is looking to buy a home, for example, if they wait six months, that home is going to be anywhere from five to 50% higher than it was my first that are looking, we have literally hundreds of clients who nothing wrong with waiting to buy that perfect home, that we're just getting into the market or you're doing your first level move up, you have to look at what your options are that are very realistic. If you wait too long, you're going to get price yourself out of the market, potentially. If that's the case, therein lies the problem. How do you afford the house, there's a couple three different solutions to that problem. The first issue, you know, plus not to give us a plug. That's what we've been doing for 22 years. You know, Home Plus allows a higher level of affordability, not just because of the financial concessions and lower rates and fees, but also because of the way that we underwrite income, you go to a big box bank, and you are a wage earning Carpenter, you are going to have your income averaged out over two years. And that's your income. Well, correct me if I'm wrong. But as an apprentice Weren't you making less money two years ago than you're making today? So we challenged the rules for Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, FHA, VA and USDA to use just the average hours worked at current rate of pay. And we want, we're the only organization of its time in this space, that underwrites files that way, what does all this mean? It means that you've got anywhere between 10 to 20%. More home affordability when you buy, and that's the key. That's how one was we offset the rising the fast rising costs in in home values and home prices. But remember, there is a already a de escalation in the home values, they're slowing down, the velocity is decreasing, it's when 23% to 80%. Is there is to call this morning on my word, we thought we'd wait until the price has come back down. Not at this, we're not gonna do that we are runway right now by any of the most conservative speculation is the next three to four years is going to have nothing less than four to 8% appreciation, you're going to be seeing in certain high value areas, that metropolitan Seattle, you've been to Bothell or carnation or mommy lately, you're seeing the highest level of appreciation in areas where people have more affordable homes. And what we're trying to do with our program, one of the positive offsets of it is that we're able to keep people in the areas and neighborhoods that they want to live in. They don't want to move to sacrimoni Falls, and he moved for an hour, 15 minutes he decide for a construction contract, and want to stay in those areas. And that's the real power of the program, taking nothing away from the financial benefits of it. But if you there's only so many ways, if you don't reduce your debt, increase your cash and increase your income. You're not going to keep up with the housing market in this state. Right. So there's a little bit of understanding. I'm hoping it was it was clear enough of the biggest challenge homeowners are faced with right now. And I'll let Tim speak to the to the selling side because that's a completely different dynamic. I'm sure you know, traditionally there's about a third over half of your listeners own a home, others rent. The same percentage applies for those who want to buy who are okay uncomfortable. Our perspective is about first and foremost for working families security, wealth creation has to come next. If you look at the average union wage earner by the time that they retire 83% of their wealth We'll come from the other state. So it's not a matter of hope I make the right plans. Or maybe I'll just lean on my on my union and my pension. Well, we look pensions, we don't have pensions work, you're trying to live on, you know, three quarters of the income you can't really live on right now. Right. So, you know, the more we can prepare someone for that, and that type of ownership environment, it gives working families control over what we know is going to happen. 10 years ago, this guy fell a year ago, it did it again. And we're now and with COVID has just changed hasn't changed the rules of the game, they've shifted, how we deal with them, and what resources we can have with them. And so that affects it all the way through qualifying for a home, it's a lot more stringent than it used to be, we spend half our time repairing people's credit to fit them inside that box. And so I think going forward, the most important thing for your for your listeners is really, to understand seriously, where they are and where they want to go. And I haven't seen even even a free read, I just haven't seen how that is more financially productive. I mean, the average homeowner has 40 times more net worth than the average renter, not my numbers, those are the facts. And so we've dedicated our careers to facilitating every means possible to elevate working families into a playing field that they otherwise wouldn't be able to be a part of.Joe Cadwell:
There's a lot to unpack there, for sure. I'll just go back to one of the earlier statements you had Patrick, you know, talking about a $1,200 truck payment. Back when my wife and I bought our home in late 90s here in southeast Portland, that was the that was our mortgage payment for a house that I was just scratching my head and so worried about how we were going to make a payment on a house that cost $142,000 At that time, and the appreciation of the property over that period of time. It's just incredible. So I'm so glad I didn't go out and buy a high end truck, but instead decided to take my wife's advice, and actually get out of renting like you were talking about and find yourselves into a home and a home that by the sound of it really has increased my own personal wealth substantially.Patrick Town:
Absolutely, absolutely. That's one of the things that I talked to some of our younger members about it. And I don't want to sound like I'm trying to put someone down for having a $1,200 truck, right? Like, that's just my trust cost these days are new Denali, right. But at the end of the day, I think it's, you know, I see it so much in the younger apprentices, because it's the first thing that they can do on their own, that gives them that sense of pride and self respect, right? And they just don't understand or many people don't understand how you can elevate that feeling. When you drive into your own driveway, you own that home, you're not looking at putting a new picture on a wall because they want you to paint the rental. Right. And in the way home is changed anyway. I mean, a lot of our apprentices, they're going to go off site on a job site. Well 38% of their spouses are working from home right now. So the home itself is taken on an atomic different wall. Everything from me, could we ever have imagined that you'd be homeschooling your children while your husband or wife went to work in the afternoon and what that all the different moving parts of that when you're in a one or two bedroom apartment, those walls close in, you have security issues, safety issues, size constraints, and now you're going to start competing with the home price with the rental. And so I think being able to deploy a system or set of resources to affect that in a positive way should be priority number one for any work in family control how you live.Joe Cadwell:
Okay, so you've made the decision. Yes, we are going to do this as a family or as an individual and, and make the investment in a home what what's the first step? Where do Where does someone begin nowadays?Patrick Town:
Well, I'm gonna hand this off to Tim in a moment. But I think that to keep it really simple for your listeners. The first step was a phone call, genuinely, I mean, it's a five minute phone call and five minutes my team and I can ascertain and help you point your compass on what is realistically attainable. We're not talking about we're not talking about going to the formula writing process right now we want to find out are you in the lane to take you where you want to be if you are then we put you on a pathway to begin the process. If you are not then I shift gears and put you on another pathway to get you into that way. Right? Everybody's got a plan B they don't know the plan B doesn't work. They need the Plan C and D that's the first step once you get that that round then what has to happen is I think they need to get outside the market. So I poked around see what your money buys you you know nothing wrong with you know with looking at a condo, I'll however I would just you know recommend maybe driving through the neighborhood and midnight on a Saturday night. See what the complexes like right So I don't make much of a distinction between condos or single family. But at the end of the day, the biggest thing comes down to the decision that a family needs to make, is this something that you want to do. And again, I wouldn't be done it. And it comes back to that willingness, there hasn't been a financial profile of a client of counsel and facilitate six or 7000, MyCareer. There's always a way to help them manage their debt to put them into the market. Now, when I say put into the market, it doesn't mean that they're going to buy the dream home, we all want our dream home, I'm still looking to build my money these days, right. But for them, the key thing is having one understand, get into the market, control your environment, your home space, and start beginning to get that wealth and appreciation going. And that's the first step. And if they can exhaust, understand what those options look like, then they're ready to move forward. And then that's where 10 of his team come in as a better real estate. He is able to know based upon what they want to buy or sell, what members of our team are best suited that really know the neighborhood. But today's technology, yes, you can be in Sri Lanka, and close a loan or sign documents on a house in San Diego. Is that the best person to represent you in San Diego? Probably not. Right. So that's where Tim comes in with his team. So tell me you want to speak to that question that Joanne?Tim Tilbury:
Yeah, you know, Joe, I mean, we're, we're a little bit old school here, we like to meet people face to face. It's good to know who you're working with, and who you're trusting to support your best interests. But we just like to get to know what the objectives are, right? So get down to the basics, and really figure out the very simplest of all questions and like, hey, let's control what we can control. And let's turn off the HGTV for a couple of weeks, let's turn off the other sources of information that are just kind of putting too much stress on the decision making process. And let's figure out what step one is. And that's what are your basic needs. And from that, you know, build up to if you could get one more thing, what would that be? Is it a two car garage? Is it a shop in the back? Is it a fenced yard is a third bedroom, second bath, you know, and kind of build from there and look to have them at the same time, talk with Patrick's team and figure out what the affordability looks like with what the ideal and housing looks like. Right? So it's, it's matching them together. But it's a it's a process. So we just have to start with step one. And let's control what we can control and understand it and grow from there.Joe Cadwell:
I know when when my wife and I came to buy our house, we had a, you know, obviously a collaborative effort to to meet both of our needs. One of the needs, I had that probably the biggest one that drove the purchase of the house where we were we ended up buying was location. There's a great park here in southeast Portland that I wanted to be close to I wanted to be within walking distance. So geographically, we really narrowed down our search. The second one was basically price, I did not want to overextend, nor did my wife overextend our budget, we wanted a home but we didn't want to be beholden to that home, we wanted to have an affordable place to live, get out of the apartment, but also have some money to do other things, remodels to the home some travel just not feel like we were living on the edge all the time. And probably the last thing was it was just going to be my wife and I we weren't really looking at a family. So we didn't need a big grandiose place to satisfy our needs. We wanted to a comfortable place close proximity to a park and affordable. So were those the kind of questions that you start off with when when trying to get someone into a home? Well,Tim Tilbury:
first of all, we want all decision makers together. So it's easier to have that conversation the first time with everybody who's going to be influencing that decision. So, you know, hey, let's fill the room with whoever is going to have input there. A lot of times, if it's a first time homebuyer, there may be, you know, another set of parents kind of in the background in support that will have an influence on what they would like to see happen. You know, they may be discussing with Patrick how to how to help maximize investment with maybe a grant letter or something like that. So they may want to have some say and it's not just, you know, hey, I need this thing for myself. But let's take everybody's input and ever have to start from the ground up with everybody on the same page and it makes everything so much easier. Rather than thinking you find the dream home one week, bringing everybody out there having them all shift their schedules and you know, find out that Three quarters of the people are into it. So I imagineJoe Cadwell:
with with kids and a family as well, schools are probably going to be a big factor that weigh in Is it a good school for us to get into. So I remember we traveled extensively within the the geographic area of the park Affer mentioned Park, that to look at a number of different houses. And each one we would check off, this wasn't quite right, it was when our price price range, but it wasn't just fitting well, and we ended up you know, buying a place of built in the 40s. But it was perfect for us, I could back my truck all the way in as a diver, I had lots of heavy diving gear, I didn't want to have to traverse from the street, to the garage to dump my gear off, I wanted to be able to back all the way up, open those shop doors up, dump my gear and have a place for it to dry was detached from the house, it was so many different factors. And I imagined as a someone who helps people get into homes, these are things that you would walk them through the steps of understanding,Tim Tilbury:
absolutely, Joe and in my ears, what I'm hearing is, you actually need that personal touch, you actually need somebody who is sensitive to the needs of the customer, and understands the areas that would be of interest. And you know, you're going to have to get off of those websites in order to be able to make those small steps down that path. Because really, it just does take actually getting out there smell the air, feeling the streets, you know, talking to the neighbors and you know, really finding where is going to be the landing spot for whatever property you're looking at. So it takes a little bit of that legwork. And it's not going to happen on the screen.Joe Cadwell:
Yeah, you got to get out of that because that's not realistic and in your you're looking at those, you know, the ball or places with with pools and and, you know, basketball courts in that we've got to be realistic. And again, that personal touch that you talked about will help bring things down to earth for folks and make it realistic. So that we don't end up in these housing bubbles that I think Patrick had talked about a little earlier where people were getting these. Well, were they subprime real estate loans, Patrick, that that put us into that housing bubble that burst some years ago, people were just going for the moon? Absolutely. That's a no.Patrick Town:
Good you brought that up the housing bubble, because we have a lot of inquiries these days about well, was this bubble going to? And is it going to burst rather than lose our homes and they're completely and it's just get this falsehood out on the air to your to your members. That's not going to happen? Right. So the the bubble that happened back 1012 years ago was because really a lot of falsification of loan documents on behalf of borrowers falsifications of values. And then you had the stock market buying tranches to launch which is big piles of loans that basically lying about the quality of that paper. If you had a heartbeat You bought a home, you know you have things like no income, no asset verification, no employment verification. So basically there that we call them liar loans, right? We didn't do that. I don't believe that I'm a no good. Those folks all whilst they're home. Fast forward here to now COVID has put us in a different dynamic. And you don't have a bubble in what we have, what you have is a very extreme reality of supply and demand at play in front of all of us. There are simply not enough homes to house the people that want to buy or with them. And so when you look at that environment, what happens is the same for anything else, sooner or later, it's going to be escalated price up. But I would we had a conversation about inflation that really reminds me of what our current state of affairs is in the housing market. And they said the question was what how do you really end inflation? Well, that's easy when you keep charging more and up and up and up until someone says I don't want to pay anymore. And that's what happens. And we're starting to see a little bit of that right now. Sure, you see a house that sells for 700 million, it was for sale for 700,000 and end up selling at 900,000 or a million dollars, the $400,000 placement for 475. We're seeing a de escalation of that a lowering of that velocity. It's calling me now, that said, I don't want any of your listeners to be disillusioned. And what that means it does not mean that you sit on your heels, okay, I'll just wear the columns all the way down and get back down to zero then jump back in. That's going to be six, eight months a year from now. And if you can't afford the house for four and a quarter, you surely will afford the same house a year later at 500. Right. So at some point, you just have to understand and here's the thing, this is what is so vitally important. Every person's situation needs and goals is different. No two applicants look the same when they go apply for a home loan. There are generalities, and we've seen on those who own homes have a massive amount of equity. So it gives them a tremendous number of opportunities to control the environment. around them to control their debt, you have those that are trying to get in the market and they just don't have the wherewithal because of the myth of what they have to have a down payment, so I can't play. That's just simply not true, you have three zero down programs that are alive and well state bond is to FHA conventional for the state of Washington for zero down, USDA, which is Fu, which is called a rule. So it's outside urban areas. And by the way, 97%, of Washington state is USDA zero down eligible. And then you have our veterans and for their service, they have arguably the best mo on the planet, when they've got a zero down loan with no EMI. It's a tremendous leg up. And so all these create opportunity. So once you're in you folks who are considering buying a home, to wait until they think they're financially ready, talk to a professional to find out where you are, I will tell you this is your mature options look like I've taught more people out of financing a home, then we've helped to get into a home. There are those who just aren't ready to pay down debt, they need to get their credit scores up, they need some stability in their life, right. And fortunately, by the time you get to, and your first year of apprenticeships, second year, third year, they're in a trench in their career, they're going to be union, arguably from from that point forward. And that's the stability where you want to have so that you don't find yourself putting somebody in a situation of financial harm's way. And it's not from their exuberance. But that's unfortunately, that's the way a lot of banks pay. They don't care if you fit the guidelines, which you know, I don't sleep well, having that kind of control over someone's life. And so as fiduciaries, legally, we don't do it. So aside from that, you know, the effect just shift gears here just for one quick second, because all this keeps kind of leading back into the home purchase part of it. And right now 68% Of all mortgage transactions are refinances 68%. It's a big, big number. And it's not just about changing the interest rate, right? Speaking to the equity, that all of us have the at least we've had as of late, you know, if you got a rate on your mortgage and the twos and you're paying a credit card or a home loan or near the loan or HELOC or car loan, or credit cards above 3%, you're better off consolidating those and refinance your mortgage. I'll do that we do 30 year mortgages all the time because it's stuck in people's brain. Right? It's the lowest payment that you can get, yes, you can get 40 year but we didn't want to I don't want to present those. But is that really the best option for someone? Right? I prefer a 15 year attending depend upon where somebody is. We all know life is fleeting, it goes by in a flash. If you're 4045 years old, why would you ever get a 30 year mortgage, but a 15 year mortgage, so a little bit of a more hit on your payment. It's not a deal breaker, you might not have to wait for a year to buy the new truck, right? Keep driving when you got. But you're going to have that half of that payment every month was right to your own piggy bank, it goes right to equity. Right. And if you're trying to match your retirement, then the whole goal of retirement is to have a better life, not less than right. And so you pay off your mortgage and be debt free on the day you retire, then you're going to win the race right then everything else is just gravy, right? And so the other side of that is a lot of our clients past clients are choosing not to move. They look at the market, they look at the escalation price and go you know what, if I sell high, that's great, but they're going to buy a house. Maybe I'll just hunker down. So I recommend your listeners who own homes. Look at your house, if you're looking around because you don't have that shop, do you have the space to build one, you know, you can remodel a home for probably 20% of its value that will make it seem like it's a brand new home. And with that equity, put it to work. And so we're having a lot more of our clients considering that and they have a whole new love affair with Home Depot and Lowe's now because so instead of positive pathway forJoe Cadwell:
going back to what you said, Patrick about the veterans loan, I know we have quite a few of our apprentices at least at my training center down here at PNC AI in Portland. Can you talk a little bit more about that veteran loan? I never did take advantage of that I think I dropped the ball. But what what can you tell our listeners who are those with prior military service how they can benefitPatrick Town:
they give you a high level overview and by the way you didn't drop the bottom lose your benefits to for life. So as long as you have your your certificate of eligibility, then you can tap into us whenever you need to. The primary advantage for it is you're going to be using government so the government insured loan so your interest rates compared to conventional are going to be significantly lower typically, about three years for half percent may not seem like a lot but the couple 300 bucks a month it makes a difference on a house payment. The big draw is zero down which means There's no downpayment, right. And so you pay a USDA funding fee. And that funding fee is for the pleasure of that loan. But there's no mortgage insurance attached to it. And your earnest money that you put down, when you purchase the property, you get back at closing, when the seller pays the closing cost. So 95% of all VA purchases, the sellers paying everything, right, it's negotiated right into the contract. And so this is where you know not to be redundant, I don't want to appear that I'm trying to pick on somebody who has, who was a veteran, who's, you know, hasn't bought a house, but you know, if you if you're if you if you have the VA benefits, they are there for a reason, you know, and they are powerful. They're the most powerful loan program in our industry, I regret my father talking me out of the Marines, because I would have liked to have had it early on, because it would have given me such a leg up. I mean, do the math, if you're 2223 24 years old, and you buy your first house or condo, where you're going to be in 10 years compared to renting. But you're in just a different league all of a sudden, right? You now have assets and financial worth that is usable to further your own security, your own wealth creation. And wealth is not unlimited by a turn like like grandiose? Well, I'm not talking about that what we're talking about, for me, the value of having wealth is about security, it's about control, we're going to have another variant of colored money these days, right? It's precedence presence has been set. And what if your construction company shuts down from from three months ago? Right? What's going to happen? Do you have the financial means to actually hang on to it? Or are you going to wait for the government to give you a check, and see if that's going to be enough time to write. And so that's what's really important, why we always stipulate and try to expand our program benefits, so that there isn't any logical reason for someone to feel they have to stay in the living environment that they're at, or the financial environment that they're at. And if and I can tell you, you know, when you've got people in front of you, with tears in their eyes, thanking you for something that they didn't know they would ever even achieve, it is the most not just heartwarming. Those are what we consider your going home. Plus, those are our profits. You know, someone comes in, they pay the fee, we make our money. Now, Raven, so where's my Where's, where's the real game? Here? The game is the goodwill and our working families, right? The only way and probably just a gift for those who have any curiosities about Well, wait a minute, how can you possibly afford to keep doing all this? Right? So me, how do you afford to give us 25% of your commissions back? How do you 40 Give us lower rates and fees? How do you give $1,000 In every transaction back to the Union nonprofit? How do you even do that? Well, it's really simple. It has been simple. We take the same monies that are always available on a transaction, and we redistribute them so that all stakeholders benefit. So we're not there's nothing behind the curtain. It's all very transparent. But it all comes down to one thing, it comes down to a nursery to the benefit of the homeowner. And in this case, it happens to be are you both assessors?Joe Cadwell:
I tell you I was while I was listening to you there it just, I was thinking back just before COVID started, my wife and I we made a trip to New York City, we stayed at an Airbnb down in the Flatbush region, we rented a room from a guy, Russian guy that had an apartment, you know, a very small apartment. And I've reflected back so many different times on how that guy must have felt riding out the pandemic for last 1618 months in this, this extremely tiny apartment. But I'm just so thankful that, you know, the house that we have was was the home that we rode the storm out in. And I couldn't imagine the you know, like you said earlier trying to do homeschooling trying to just keep from going stir crazy in a place that's literally 350 square feet, or maybe a little larger in our area. But still, the benefit of having a home and having some some place to actually call home not just the house, but an actual home that belongs to you. I think that's just a fantastic things that you guys are doing and helping our union members get into a place to call home. So I took a couple notes. And we're just gonna go I'm gonna keep it simple. You know, right now there's no better time and place to buy. I mean, you're you're not going to do any better. Holding on waiting for things to tank, alright, just doesn't seem possible. So get in now and work with someone local. I mean, if we really had to put it in a nutshell, get in now work with someone local, someone who knows the market, someone who is concerned for your best interest like Union Homeplus is and work with them. And it all starts with a phone call. Patrick, what is that number and who can call you. I know you're in the Seattle area is that just for Seattle just for Washington State.Patrick Town:
That's for anywhere in the country. We're licensed in all 50 states. There are certain legal restrictions or wages can do within each of those states. But we're licensed for the member in the country. Direct numbers very easiest to 064068139. Again, that's 206-406-8139. And if you don't have the pin you're driving, then just get a chance to jump on to union hall plus dot orgy. And you can reach out to us that way. Learn a few more details and connect up with this.Joe Cadwell:
Gentleman, thank you so much for taking your time to be on the show. Today, I'll make sure all that information gets put into our show notes. And I look forward to having you back on the show sometime in the future. Our guests today have been Patrick town and Tim Tilbury from Union Home Plus and velocity real estate in Seattle. Be sure to check out the show notes for more information on this topic. Well, that wraps up this episode of Grit Northwest. If you liked what you hear, be sure to share with a friend, family member co worker Grit Northwest is no paid advertising and rely solely on carpenter carpenter word of mouth to help grow the show. There's a few minutes of bonus material for you to enjoy. So Patrick, if you had a crystal ball, and you were looking into the future about that, you know, where homebuying is going? What would you say we should be on the lookout for?Patrick Town:
Well, thanks for asking that question. Even though my crystal ball isn't any more clear or hazy than yours, I do pay attention to it for a lot longer than most folks. And I can tell you that we're in a time right now. Where so many different parts of our community, our world, our government are going through some some pretty big shifts and pivots. And relative to our conversation about homeownership and selling homes, and finally some homes, overall, we're going to be in a relatively low rate environment for a while. So I'm not going to tell you that don't jump out there too much, you're going to lose your your shirt, you lose your shirt on the cost of the house, but not in the interest rate. That being said COVID Has Has nasty me because she is on everything from our GDP to employment. You'll see changes in our economy we get into September and moratoriums on rent on rent are lifted, when people started doing going into forbearance, when they stopped receiving stimulus checks. At some point people got to go back to work, we've got 9 million people that are out of work that should be going to work. Those were all affect the economy, the challenges that are we're not really looking at runaway inflation. I know we're all hearing the news media. But I think that's a temporary situation. Supply and demand is not going to leave us literally for years, I'm writing more than I'm wrong, which is why I have the competence of speaking this way. And I have a lot of different inputs that I pay dearly for to receive that foundation of data. But at the end of the day, I think one thing that I can tell you that I'm preparing for and I will share this with you and your listeners so that they can make their future preparations for it. There's a higher speculation for and against another recession the next 18 to 24 months. So given that what happens? Well, what happens is when those recessionary periods begin, you'll see the first correction going to be in the stock market. And that takes the money that goes there and last and throw that into the bond market. And that's going to affect your interest rates. You could see us go below the levels we already enjoyed last year. Right? There has even been one speculator that we're gonna see rates on a 30 year fixed rate mortgage down to one and a half percent. Now, we've been down on the 15 to 178. So we're not talking about other realm, but it was a short window. And so if that's been the case, I hope we don't get there. I think we will but I do hope we don't get there because there's too much financial strife, there's going to hit the labor force because of it, people is going to their wealth gonna be kind of just dissipated for a short time when the same breath. I can't not say what we've already learned. You can see the typical changes, you can see the storm coming oh, my goodness, put your coat on, batten down the doors, go take care of things. So if you don't when it comes to financing a home, don't wait to the rate to come down to refinance to change it from a 30 to a 15 Get rid of your debt, get a financial cash buffer, put it the bank if you need to put it into CDs, but hang on to it. Money isn't is pretty cheap right now. That's why you see so many more people finance homes, as opposed to paying cash. And so if you could do that, protect yourself and if I'm wrong, Joe, and I hope I am I don't think I am. But if I'm wrong, then what Will you be in if that storm doesn't hit this hard? That much better than you are today? Everyone that I've watched in 30 years of doing this always comes to me after the storm lands on their beach, right? You got to take care of things ahead of time. And a simple phone call conversation will help direct you to accomplish on what you think the best odds of success and the rest of this live long and prosper.Joe Cadwell:
Sounds like a pretty good crystal ball to me. Great answer, Patrick. Thank you for that.